Could U.S. Long-Range Missiles Tip The Balance In The Ukraine War?

WASHINGTON -- There has been little to cheer about in Ukraine this fall.

Russia has been seizing territory in eastern Ukraine at the fastest clip in more than 2 1/2 years, just as its ally North Korea sends thousands of fresh troops to the front.

Meanwhile, the United States -- Ukraine's biggest backer in its war with Russia -- just elected as its next leader Donald Trump, who has criticized large-scale aid to Ukraine. That has raised fears that a future lack of U.S. support could lead to Kyiv being forced to concede territory in exchange for peace.

There are also concerns that Ukraine's European partners appear too divided to fill the potential U.S. void.

But just as the prospects of a brutal winter grow with the launch of a new Russian counteroffensive, Ukraine has seemingly secured one of its biggest military requests. According to multiple U.S. media reports, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has finally given Kyiv the green light to strike inside Russia with powerful, U.S. long-range weapons.

"This is a message to the Kremlin that we're not just folding up our tents and waiting for Trump, that the United States has not quit," retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe from 2014 to 2017, told RFE/RL.

Cautious About Escalation

The move also opens the door for Britain and France to follow suit, potentially enabling Ukraine to deal Russia a blow at a critical moment in the war. Ukraine is seeking to hold onto territorial gains in Russia's Kursk region that could be crucial to any future negotiations.

Kyiv had been pleading with the Biden administration for months to grant permission for deep strikes to destroy airfields hosting the Russian bombers and fighter jets that are terrorizing Ukraine.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia was dropping as many as 3,000 glide bombs on Ukraine every month. Those bombs have decimated Ukraine's forces, destroyed its infrastructure, and opened the door to Moscow's seizure of territory.

The Biden administration, which had been cautious about the delivery of powerful weapons systems to Ukraine since the war began, has previously rejected Kyiv's request amid concern it would trigger Russian escalation. The administration had also blocked the U.K. from granting permission for long-range strikes because its Storm Shadow cruise missiles also use U.S. parts.

Some experts suggested that the Biden administration was also concerned the Trump campaign could use the issue of deep-strike permission to stoke fears of a wider war ahead of the November 5 election. Trump ran on a promise to end the war soon after taking office.

The reported White House decision to permit deep strikes comes a day after Russia launched 210 missiles and drones into Ukraine, one of the largest aerial attacks by Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

It also comes as Russia has reportedly deployed 50,000 men to retake Kursk, including thousands of North Korean troops. Military analysts have suggested that Putin wants to regain full control of the region before Trump takes power on January 20 to strengthen its bargaining position.

Likely Impact

The battlefield impact of the deep-strike permission will depend on how many ATACMS -- missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers -- and other allied long-range missiles Ukraine is given and what restrictions are placed on their use. The New York Times and The Washington Post reported that Ukraine is being limited to striking the Kursk region.

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Following the Biden administration's announcement, the French daily Le Figaro reported that the U.K. and France said they, too, would allow Ukraine to use their Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles to strike inside Russia. That will put pressure on Germany, which has so far refused to deliver its Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Colby Badhwar, a Canadian-based defense analyst who has written extensively about ATACMS, says the United States had about 2,400 of the long-range missiles in stock as of December 2023, roughly half of which were expired. He says more than 500 ATACMS have been added to the stockpile over the past year. However, he says the Pentagon has been hesitant to supply them in large numbers.

Manpower Issues

Retired Lieutenant General Hodges said Ukraine could undermine Russia's ongoing counteroffensive in Kursk with a healthy supply of missiles.

"You can defeat mass if you have enough precision weapons that can destroy headquarters, logistics, and artillery," he said.

Earlier this year, as rumors heated up that the United States might grant the use of ATACMS inside Russia, the Kremlin began moving some of its military assets out of their range.

Badhwar said in a tweet that there are still plenty of Russian military assets within striking distance.

Yet even successful ATACMS strikes won't address Ukraine's main problem on the battlefield, something the United States and its NATO allies can't really help with -- manpower.

Ukraine moved late to step up recruitment and is now struggling to attract and train enough men to repel the constant Russian troop assaults. Although Russia is losing as many as 1,500 men a day -- more than Ukraine -- the Kremlin is still able to replenish its forces.